Ever since Japan reopened after COVID, it seems it’s been THE place to visit. Popular places such as Kyoto and a spot where you can get a great view of Mt. Fuji have had to make all sorts of new rules as a way to curb overenthusiastic tourists who want to get THE snap for their Insta (did I say that right? “snap for their Insta?” My Gen X is showing, isn’t it?)
However some airlines have reported a noticeable decrease in flights to Japan over the next few months:
- Hong Kong Airlines has pulled all of its flights between Kagoshima and Kumamoto in July and August after a significant decrease in bookings since May
- Greater Bay Airlines has reduced its flights to southern Japan between mid-May and October
- Flights to Tottori prefecture, in western Japan, have decreased by about 50%
Why so many fewer flights? Believe it or not, it’s because of a prediction written in a Japanese comic book (“manga”) that a major earthquake and resulting tsunami will hit Japan in July.
The “prophecy”
The earthquake “prophecy” is apparently included in the manga The Future I Saw: Complete Edition (2022) by artist Ryo Tatsuki.
According to FactcheckCenter.jp,
In the first section of the manga, “Prophetic Dreams,” the author describes a dream that includes the following details:
- “The disaster occurs in July 2025.”
- “The seabed between Japan and the Philippines suddenly erupts.”
- “Huge waves spread in all directions across the ocean, sending massive tsunamis to countries around the Pacific.”
- The tsunami was three times higher than that of the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred in 2011.
A simple line from a manga typically wouldn’t make so much of a difference, especially when you understand that the “prophecy” was based on a dream Tatsuki had. And even that technically shouldn’t make a difference – I mean people dream things are going to happen all the time, but it doesn’t mean they actually HAPPEN.
But this isn’t the first time this artist has made such a prediction…and the first time, it appeared to come true.
According to Japan Forward, Tatsuki previously gained attention for allegedly “predicting” the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake in a manga published in the late 1990s. From Washington Post:
In the original 1999 version, the book claimed that a “great disaster will occur in March 2011.” That month happened to be when a deadly triple disaster struck Japan’s Tohoku region: a devastating earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown that triggered one of the biggest nuclear disasters in history.
Enter: superstition
The thing is, a lot of people in Asia are superstitious, and many, particularly those from Hong Kong, believe this “prophecy.” So claims started spreading across social media that a major natural disaster and a massive tsunami were going to strike the country in July. Some even specified the date would be July 5th.
So in the spring, they started cancelling their flights to Japan.
Trying to ease people’s minds
It became so bad that the Cabinet Office in Tokyo posted to their Twitter (sigh. “X”) account in April:
“It is difficult from current scientific knowledge to predict earthquakes by specifying the time and location.”
The Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) also chimed in, reminding people that there’s no scientific basis for the earthquake prediction.
On top of that, the Japan Meteorological Agency stated on its website: “It is scientifically impossible to predict earthquakes by specifying the date, location or magnitude. Therefore, any claims suggesting such specific predictions are completely false and should be regarded as misinformation.” Meanwhile, Ryoichi Nomura, the head of the agency, was “urging the public “not to be swayed by disaster information that specifies a date. We strongly advise against acting irrationally.”
And to back that up, during a press conference on April 23, Miyagi Governor Yoshihiro Murai was quoted as saying:
It’s a serious issue when unscientific claims spread on social media and impact tourism. Japanese people aren’t fleeing the country, so I want to reassure everyone to please visit Japan with peace of mind.
The fact that Japanese people are not leaving the country in light of the “prophecy” appears to be true – JAL, ANA, and other airlines based in Japan haven’t reported an increase in Japanese leaving the country due to fear of an upcoming disaster.
But tourists, particularly from China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan (all of which were in the top 5 tourist markets for Japan in 2024) are reportedly “not taking the risk” and are avoiding Japan in the high season of June, July and August. They’re instead opting for destinations like Australia, Dubai and Europe, Yuen Chun Ning, the chief executive of a Hong Kong travel agency told local outlet Oriental Daily News earlier this month.
People from Hong Kong alone accounted for nearly 2.7 million of Japan’s visitors in 2024.
Visit now. Or don’t
So yeah…this may be prime time to visit Japan. The crowds will apparently be lighter than they’ve been. Orrrrr you could be caught in a massive, deadly earthquake and tsunami. At least if you believe the “prophecy” of Ryo Tatsuki.
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