Years ago, I worked for a non-profit organization that, among other things, used the skills of volunteers to do activities in the community. Part of my job was gathering these volunteers, so over the years I got a decent handle on what percentage of people who said they would show up would actually flake on us and be “no-shows.” I’d then pad our number of volunteers by 10 to 20% so we’d have the amount we wanted, or hopefully a little bit more, instead of not having enough.
Airlines do the same thing. They have decades upon decades’ worth of statistics about their passengers. With that, they know, using certain parameters, the average percentage of passengers who will likely miss a given flight. Of course, airlines are in the business of making money, so many intentionally oversell their flights – that way when there’s X number of no-shows, they already have someone lined up to sit in the seat.
The problem is when fewer people are no-shows than anticipated and the flight is oversold by however many seats. When I worked for the non-profit, we’d just have more volunteers than we anticipated. But, of course, an airline can’t have more passengers than seats.
They’ll start by asking for X number of passengers willing to voluntarily give up their seats on that particular flight, in exchange for whatever compensation. But after that, if they’re still oversold, they’ll resort to bumping passengers.
How do airlines decide who gets bumped?
Each airlines has a pecking order of who they’ll bump first. Spoiler alert, though: the more valuable you are to an airline (read: the more money you’ve given them), the less your chances of being bumped. That’s not the case for all reasons for being bumped, but it’s definitely a trend for a lot of them.
The following reasons to bump passengers aren’t in any particular order, since each airline will have its own procedure and priorities.
You’re flying as a non-rev
Short for “non-revenue.” You’re flying for free, or at a fraction of the actual ticket price, probably because you’re an airline employee or are closely related to one. The airline is making little or no profit on your flying, so you’re low many on the totem pole.
You’re flying basic economy
If you’re flying basic economy class, you’ve paid a relatively low amount for your seat. The less you’ve paid, the less important you are to an airline, so you’re at a higher risk of being bumped.
You got a discount fare with an OTA
Online travel agents like Expedia, KAYAK, etc. are great for finding discount prices. But if an airline has to choose between someone who got a discount price with Booking.com or someone who made a reservation on the airline’s dedicated website, guess who’s going to get priority?
You don’t have a reserved seat
Airlines charge extra for you to have a reserved seat. If you’ve planned to get your seat assigned at the gate, you’re more at risk of being bumped than someone who has shelled out the money to reserve a seat.
You have no status
Passengers who have no status with an airline will have a higher chance of being bumped than one who has status (because of how many miles they’ve flown with an airline, because they have a certain credit card, because they have status with a partner airline, even just because they’ve joined the airline’s frequent flyer program).
When you checked in
The early bird gets the worm. If you only check in 90 minutes before your flight, you’re a lower priority than the person who checked in 24 hours ahead of time.
You haven’t checked any bags
Airlines are obsessed with being on time. If you’ve checked a bag and are bumped, they’re going to have to take the time to find your bag before taking off. That could put them in a position of being late (or lateR). If it’s just you, your carry-on and your personal bag, it’s going to be easier to bump you than someone who’s checked a bag.
Who you are & your particular circumstances
I don’t mean this as a “Don’t you know who I am?” sort of thing. But an able-bodied adult in the prime of their life, who is traveling alone, will be able to handle the inconvenience of being bumped better than someone who is elderly, disabled, an unaccompanied minor, or flying with young children.
How to avoid being bumped
Obviously, doing the opposite of everything listed here would be a good start, but there are a few other ways, too. We wrote this a few years ago to help people avoid being bumped, but most of the advice listed remains pretty much the same.
Feature Photo: Pixnio / CC0
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