How Airlines Determine Routes

by SharonKurheg

According to the FAA, as of September 2024, there were more than 45,000 flights every day. That’s more than 16 million flights per year.

Meanwhile, according to Forbes, as of late 2024, the most popular routes were Hong Kong (HKG) to Taipei (TPE) (6.78 million seats filled), Cairo (CAI) to Jeddah (JED) (5.47 million seats), and Seoul Incheon (ICN) to Tokyo Narita (NRT) (5.41 million). If you’re curious when the U.S. gets listed in the top 10, it’s #10: New York (JFK) – London Heathrow (LHR), 4.01 million seats.

Have you ever wondered how airlines decide what routes to take? I mean, do they just stick pins in big cities and say, “Those are the ones we’re going to fly between”? Or is it maybe a trial and error sort of thing? Or what?

Not surprisingly, it’s common for carriers – especially newer airlines – to add and cut routes regularly as part of their growth plans. They make the changes as a way to test markets and if a certain market isn’t profitable, they’ll pull out of that one and try somewhere else. But in general, carriers typically pick their places based on analysis of potential demand and profitability. So it’s kind of a trial and error sort of thing, but with vast knowledge of how the industry – and the needs of people – work.

Sometimes cities or airports sweeten the pot by adding financial incentives or other perks to get an airline to fly there (although, funnily enough Ryanair sometimes does the exact opposite). But even then, whether the airline stays depends on the sustainability of the location. If it’s not making a profit – or not enough of one – they still could pull out, even with those incentives in place.

This video goes into even more explanation – take a look…

So there are a lot of things to consider: airlines decide where to fly based on location, hubs, stopovers, passenger interest (both in the route and how much they’re willing to pay), info purchased from airline booking companies, competition from other airlines, and a whole lot more.

I had NO IDEA about any of this. But now I know. And so do you. 🙂

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