Will Hyatt’s Changes Change How We Value Chase Ultimate Rewards?

by joeheg

For years, Chase Ultimate Rewards has had a pretty straightforward elevator pitch.

They weren’t always the easiest points to earn, and they weren’t always the flashiest program either. American Express had more transfer partners. Capital One made it simple to earn 2X on almost everything. Citi had its own sweet spots. But Chase had one thing that made Ultimate Rewards stand out from the rest.

World of Hyatt.

That was the hook. That was the differentiator. That was the reason so many people in the points and miles world were willing to put up with earning fewer points on everyday spending, because the payoff on the back end could be so much better.

If you could transfer Chase points to World of Hyatt at a 1:1 ratio and regularly get more than 2 cents per point in value, that was enough to make Ultimate Rewards feel more valuable than almost anything else out there. Even if another card earned more points per dollar, Chase points often came out ahead because of what you could do with them once they hit your account.

That’s why Hyatt has mattered so much to the Chase ecosystem. And it’s also why Hyatt’s recent pricing changes could have consequences that go well beyond one hotel program.

Because once Hyatt points stop being worth what they used to be, it’s fair to ask whether Ultimate Rewards should still be viewed the same way.

Why Hyatt Has Always Mattered So Much

Pool at the Hyatt Regency Danang

For a long time, Hyatt occupied a very specific place in the points world.

It wasn’t the biggest hotel chain. It didn’t have nearly the footprint of Marriott or Hilton. There were plenty of places around the world where Hyatt simply didn’t have a property that made sense.

But what Hyatt did have was value.

While other hotel programs drifted deeper and deeper into dynamic pricing, Hyatt still felt refreshingly understandable. There was an award chart. There were categories. You could look at a property, see what category it was in, and have a pretty good idea of what an award night would cost. More importantly, those award rates often represented excellent value compared to the cash price.

That predictability made Hyatt stand out. And because Hyatt is a Chase transfer partner, it gave Chase something that the other flexible points currencies couldn’t really match on the hotel side.

For a lot of people, that was the entire reason to collect Ultimate Rewards in the first place. Hyatt wasn’t just a useful transfer partner. It was the reason Chase points could punch above their weight.

But even before Hyatt started changing its award pricing, Chase had already lost a little of that edge.

When Bilt added Hyatt as a 1:1 transfer partner, Hyatt stopped feeling like Chase’s unique advantage. The program that had done so much to make Ultimate Rewards feel special was suddenly shared with another currency.

That didn’t make Hyatt any less valuable on its own. But it did make the case for Chase a little weaker. And now, with Hyatt itself moving toward more flexible pricing, Chase may be losing not just exclusivity, but value as well.

The Problem Is That Hyatt Is Changing

The issue is that Hyatt doesn’t work the way it used to.

This hasn’t happened all at once, and that’s part of why it’s easy to miss. The program still looks much more reasonable than Hilton or Marriott on the surface. Hyatt still has an award chart. It still has categories. It still feels more grounded than most hotel programs.

But the details keep shifting in one direction.

First, there was peak and off-peak pricing. Then came the steady drumbeat of annual category changes, with more properties creeping into more expensive bands. And now Hyatt has introduced a new tiered pricing structure that makes the same hotel cost different amounts depending on when you stay.

I already wrote about that in my post, Hyatt’s New Award Pricing: How Three Stays at the Same Hotel Could Cost Different Amounts. The headline takeaway was simple enough: even when you’re booking the exact same property, the number of points required can vary more than it used to.

That may sound like a small change, but it cuts right to the reason Hyatt points have been so valuable for so long. The more flexibility Hyatt builds into its pricing, the harder it becomes to count on the kind of outsized value that made the program special.

And let’s be honest here: this probably doesn’t end with points being worth the same amount they were before. They’re going to be worth less. Maybe not overnight, and maybe not in every redemption, but the direction seems pretty obvious.

If Hyatt Points Are Worth Less, Ultimate Rewards Are Too

Exterior of the Hyatt Place St. Paul

That’s the bigger conversation people are having now.

For years, it was easy to justify assigning a higher value to Chase Ultimate Rewards because Hyatt existed. Even if you didn’t personally transfer every point to Hyatt, the option was always there. That option helped define the ceiling for what Ultimate Rewards could be worth.

So when Hyatt points get weaker, Ultimate Rewards don’t stay untouched.

That doesn’t mean Chase points suddenly become bad. It doesn’t mean there’s no value left. But it does mean the logic behind valuing them more highly than other currencies starts to break down.

After all, Chase points have never been the easiest points to earn.

If you wanted a good catch-all card for everyday spending, Chase’s answer has usually been the Freedom Unlimited, which offers 1.5X points per dollar. That’s fine, but it’s not market-leading. Capital One has long offered 2X on general spending with Venture cards. Citi has had the Double Cash. American Express has business cards that earn 2X in broad categories.

For years, Chase could get away with lagging behind on the earning side because the redemption side made up for it. You were earning fewer points, but those points were worth more.

That tradeoff worked.

But if Hyatt redemptions start coming back to earth, then Chase’s position becomes harder to defend. Because now you’re not just earning fewer points. You may also be getting less value from them once it’s time to redeem.

That’s a very different equation.

Chase Had Already Lost Part Of Its Safety Net

What makes this even more interesting is that Chase had already chipped away at one of the other reasons Ultimate Rewards felt easy to value.

There used to be a simple floor under the program. If you had a Sapphire Reserve, you could redeem points through the Chase travel portal at 1.5 cents each. If you had a Sapphire Preferred, you could get 1.25 cents each. You didn’t have to think too hard about transfer partners if you didn’t want to. There was always a dependable baseline.

That changed when Chase moved away from that setup and replaced it with Points Boost.

Now the value you get through the portal is less consistent, more selective, and in many cases less generous than the old system. So even before Hyatt started changing, there was already a sense that Ultimate Rewards were becoming a little harder to value with confidence.

That’s what makes Hyatt so important here. As Chase weakened the easy portal floor, Hyatt became even more central to the argument for why Ultimate Rewards were special.

If Hyatt weakens too, then Chase loses another layer of what made the program stand out.

This Doesn’t Mean Hyatt Suddenly Becomes Useless

To be clear, I’m not arguing that Hyatt points are suddenly worthless or that Ultimate Rewards are no longer worth collecting.

Hyatt is still probably the best hotel transfer partner among the major flexible points currencies. Even with these changes, the program remains more understandable than Hilton or Marriott, and there will almost certainly still be opportunities to get excellent value from Hyatt redemptions.

But that’s different from saying the program is as strong as it used to be.

And that’s really the point.

The case for Chase Ultimate Rewards has long depended on the idea that Hyatt offered unusually strong value with unusually little friction. If that value starts slipping — even gradually — then Ultimate Rewards should probably be viewed a little differently, too.

Maybe they’re still the most valuable flexible points currency. Or maybe they’re now just one of several very good options. That’s a discussion worth having.

Final Thought

For a long time, people accepted earning fewer Chase points because those points had a clearer path to outsized value.

Hyatt was the reason that logic worked.

But as Hyatt moves toward more flexible pricing, and as more award stays require more points than they used to, the gap between Chase and the competition may start to narrow. And once that happens, people may begin to question whether Ultimate Rewards still deserve the premium they’ve traditionally been given.

That may be the real impact of Hyatt’s changes.

Not just that Hyatt points become less valuable, but that Chase Ultimate Rewards do too.

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