Why Lines at TSA (PreCheck & Regular) Might Start Getting Slower

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The number of US residents who travel by plane continues to increase. The numbers for 2024 aren’t out yet but for fiscal year 2023, US airports transported 1,044,764,461 passengers, which was (A) the highest amount in the post-pandemic years and (B) not quite 13 million passengers less than 2019, the last “full” year before the pandemic. Based on year-over-year numbers, fiscal year 2024 is sure to be higher than 2019. From the FAA:

Over a billion passengers is…a lot. And the lines at the TSA security checkpoints are…long. So in an attempt to decrease the queues at the “regular” airport security checkpoints,  the government is pushing hard for people to get TSA PreCheck. It seems to be working; by summer of 2024, there were 20 million people who had PreCheck. However the queues for PreCheck are longer now too, making the wait longer (I love how TSA manipulated their statistics on that one!).

On top of encouraging people to get PreCheck, they’ve also offered it, sometimes for free, sometimes for a cost, to more and more groups over the years:

• Visitors from select foreign countries
• Children age 17 and under whose parent/guardian have TSA PreCheck
• Certain Hazardous Materials Endorsement (HME) holders
• Active military and DoD civilian employees
• Some U.S. Veterans

Expect both the PreCheck & Regular lines to slow down

Unfortunately, it looks like both the regular and PreCheck lines are going to slow down, come this May. Why? REAL ID.

REAL ID was initially supposed to start in 2008. It has been delayed repeatedly, sometimes due to red tape, sometimes because of the pandemic, and sometimes because of stubborn state officials who refused to comply. It’s 2025. After 17 years of delays, it looks REAL ID card-based enforcement will really begin on May 7, 2025. Nope, no more delays.

But that causes its own set of problems. From the TSA:

…as of January 2024, only approximately 56 percent of DL (Driver’s Licenses)/IDs in circulation nationally are REAL ID-compliant. In 34 States, less than 60 percent of DL/IDs in circulation are REAL ID-compliant, and, of those, in 22 States less than 40 percent are REAL ID-compliant. Further, because of a history of REAL ID deadlines being extended, DHS believes that the public may continue to expect that additional extensions are likely and not feel urgency to obtain a REAL ID-compliant card. DHS believes this lack of urgency is likely to delay increased adoption in many States despite best efforts to inform the public, potentially leading to last-minute surges in demand for REAL ID-compliant IDs leading up to the deadline.

I love how they realize most people aren’t going to take REAL ID seriously because it’s already been delayed so many times, over so many years, that folks think another delay is just around the corner. And frankly, who knows…maybe it is.

Because of the history of extensions related to REAL ID enforcement, DHS expects that there is some confusion, lack of awareness, and apathy associated with the May 7, 2025, deadline. Given this prior history, DHS believes that the public may continue to expect that additional extensions are likely and not feel urgency to obtain a REAL ID-compliant DL/ID.

Anyway, DHS (and other government agencies that require the use of REAL ID) realizes that not everyone will have a REAL ID (because SEVENTEEN YEARS wasn’t enough time?). So they’re going to have what they call a “phased approach” to card-based enforcement.

From DHS:

For example, agencies may choose to issue a written or verbal warning the first time an individual attempts to use their non-compliant DL/ID after the May 7, 2025, enforcement deadline, letting that individual know they will be denied entry if they attempt to use their non-compliant card at that location another time.

DHS says that individualized warnings like this may be more effective at encouraging compliance than broad public messaging. But then there’s my concern:

• Every initial “stop the passengers to give them a warning.” is going to take up time and then
• When they’re denied entry the next time, THAT’S gonna be fun. That “potential disruption to operations” that they’re trying to avoid? It’s going to happen. Daily. Several times per day. At every TSA checkpoint across the country, including both PreCheck and the regular lines

DHS admits they have no idea the number of individuals TSA may encounter who do not have a REAL ID-compliant DL/ID. That will depend on how many people each day fly with a driver’s license that’s not REAL ID compliant.

To their credit, DHS plans to spend several million dollars to get as many people compliant with REAL ID as possible. This will include, “heavy engagement with States that have low REAL ID adoption rates, a public advertising campaign raising awareness of upcoming REAL ID enforcement and the benefits of obtaining a REAL ID, and communication with the travel industry.” Let’s cross our fingers that it’ll help.

Maybe it’ll all work out

Of course, it’s possible DHS will have stopgap measures in place so when May 7th and beyond comes around, people who still don’t have REAL ID won’t make the lines at the TSA security checkpoints incredibly slower than usual. Let’s hope they do, huh?

As for me, although I’ve always followed this guide to figure out how early I should arrive at any given airport, I’m also going to make sure I check the MyTSA App to get an idea of how long the waits are at the airport in question.

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This post first appeared on Your Mileage May Vary